India-Pakistan Relations: Challenges and Opportunities

India and Pakistan, two neighbouring countries, have been involved in a long-standing dispute. Despite their shared history, cultural similarities, geographical proximity, and economic interdependence, their relationship has been characterized by hostility rather than friendship. Since gaining independence, their interactions have been caught in a competition, conflict, and war cycle. Although there have been intermittent phases of peace, these have often given way to renewed tensions, keeping genuine friendship and cooperation elusive. The two nations have experienced prolonged periods of a Cold War-like state and have engaged in four full-scale wars. Instances of improved relations have been rare and short-lived.

Various Stages of Relations

The situation of their relations can be appropriately evaluated only after an in-depth analysis of them since 1947. This analysis can be understood through the changes under five stages: (1) Partition and Initial Separation, 1947-54. (2) Strained Relations, 1955-71. (3) Era of Detente, 1972-79. (4) Era of Turmoil, 1980-98. (5) New Beginning but Tragic End, 1999-2003. (6) New Initiative but Status Quo, 2003-2014, (7) Relations Revisited during Modi Era, 2014-Present Times

1. Partition and Initial Separation: 1947-54

India and Pakistan, despite gaining independence from British rule simultaneously, were unable to establish amicable relations. The partition led to a massive exchange of populations, with Muslims migrating to Pakistan and Hindus and Sikhs moving to India. This process was marred by widespread massacres, instilling deep-seated hatred and friction between the two nations.

Numerous unresolved issues stemming from the partition further exacerbated tensions. Both countries adopted conflicting approaches to address these disputes, which fueled conflict instead of fostering cooperation. The main factors contributing to the strained relations included:

Contemporary problems caused by the partition.
The treatment and protection of minorities.
Disputes over the distribution of water from the Indus River.
Boundary disputes and related incidents.
Disagreements over the property of displaced persons.
The Kashmir dispute.

Contemporary Partition Problems

The partition gave rise to four immediate issues that strained early relations:

Division of the Punjab and Bengal boundaries.
Division of the military.
Division of civil services.
Distribution of government property and debt.

While most of these issues were resolved in the early years, the bitterness generated during this period continued to influence relations. Mutual suspicion drove both nations further apart, obstructing opportunities for cooperation.

Minority Issues

Partition left 14.5 million Hindus in Pakistan and 40 million Muslims in India as minorities. This resulted in a massive displacement, with millions settling as refugees. By 1951, India had absorbed 7.48 million displaced persons, including 4.05 million from West Pakistan. Nehru and Liaquat Ali Khan signed an agreement on April 8, 1950, to address the minority issue, alleviating its severity. However, remnants of this problem persisted in later years.

Water Disputes

The distribution of water from the Indus River system emerged as a critical issue. The region included seven rivers, with Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus flowing primarily through Pakistan, while Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas ran through India. Tensions began on April 1, 1948, when India temporarily stopped water supply to Pakistan over unpaid charges. Though an agreement was reached on May 4, 1948, disputes resurfaced.

In 1951, American expert David Lilienthal noted that only 20% of the Indus waters were utilized, with the rest flowing into the Arabian Sea. He recommended resolving the issue based on technical and economic considerations, involving the World Bank as a mediator. On September 19, 1960, both nations signed the Indus Waters Treaty, resolving the issue after 12 years of negotiations.

Boundary Disputes

Boundary demarcation created additional tensions. The western boundary (excluding Kashmir) spanned 1,503 miles, while the eastern boundary was 2,481 miles long. Incidents occurred frequently as both nations disputed actual boundary lines.

The boundary issues in Punjab were resolved through bilateral agreements in 1955, 1958, and 1961. However, the Rann of Kutch dispute, involving Pakistan’s claim to 3,500 square miles of marshland in Gujarat, lingered for two decades. This was resolved on February 19, 1968, through UN arbitration, which awarded 350 square miles to Pakistan.

Property of the Displaced

Partition also led to disputes over abandoned properties. Refugees left behind homes, factories, and other assets, creating significant challenges. For instance, properties left by Hindus and Sikhs in Pakistan were estimated at $8 billion, a figure Pakistan disputed. Through extensive dialogue and agreements from 1947 to 1950, many disputes were resolved, though practical implementation continued into the 1950s and early 1960s.

Kashmir Dispute

The Kashmir conflict remains the most contentious issue between India and Pakistan. Under the Indian Independence Act, princely states could choose to join India, Pakistan, or remain independent. Kashmir’s ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, initially chose independence. However, in October 1947, tribal forces backed by Pakistan advanced toward Srinagar.

Faced with the invasion, the Maharaja signed the Instrument of Accession to India on October 26, 1947, prompting Indian military intervention. Despite appeals to Pakistan, hostilities escalated, leading India to bring the matter to the United Nations on January 1, 1948. However, the UN-mediated efforts failed to resolve the issue, leaving the Kashmir dispute unresolved to this day.

Efforts to address the Kashmir issue have repeatedly stalled, cementing it as a persistent obstacle to improving relations between the two nations.

The following were the key features of India-Pakistan relations during this period:

Lack of Cooperation: Relations were characterized by bitterness, suspicion, and mistrust, often escalating to the brink of conflict or open confrontation.
Impact of Partition Legacy: Both countries adopted contrasting internal approaches—India emphasized secularism, while Pakistan leaned toward religious identity. These internal dynamics also influenced their foreign policies, further deepening the divide.
Contrasting Foreign Policies: To address the challenges and deficiencies arising from these differences, both nations pursued opposing foreign policy strategies, which often clashed on the international stage.
Cold War Politics: The rivalry extended beyond bilateral disputes, as both countries became entangled in the broader geopolitics of the Cold War, aligning with opposing global powers.
Defence Expenditure: Bilateral hostility and international competition compelled both nations to allocate excessive resources to defense, diverting attention and resources from development.

In summary, the early relations between India and Pakistan were shaped by animosity stemming from partition. This animosity led to divergent domestic and foreign policies, widened the gap between the two nations, and left little room for cooperation.

2. Strained Relations: 1955–1971

The period between 1955 and 1971 was a highly sensitive phase in Indo-Pak relations, marked by escalating tensions and culminating in two major wars. This era can be considered a critical juncture of conflict between the two nations. The primary reasons for the growing divide included:

Arms Acquisition and Military Alliances: Pakistan’s efforts to acquire advanced weaponry and its membership in various military alliances heightened tensions with India.
Pakistan’s Alignment with China: In 1963, Pakistan ceded 5,180 square kilometers of territory in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir to China through an agreement, further straining relations.
The Indo-Pak War of 1965: Pakistan viewed India’s defeat in the 1962 Sino-Indian War as a sign of weakness, leading to heightened aggression that culminated in the 1965 war.
Civil War in East Pakistan and India-Soviet Friendship: The internal unrest in East Pakistan and India’s growing closeness to the Soviet Union added to the tensions.

The Indo-Pak War of 1971

The situation in East Pakistan deteriorated into a full-blown civil war due to internal unrest and political discontent. By November 1971, military skirmishes began along the border. On December 3, 1971, Pakistan launched an attack in the western sector, prompting India to retaliate the next day.

India formally recognized Bangladesh as an independent nation on December 6, 1971, further intensifying the conflict. Following Pakistan’s defeat in the eastern theater, General Niazi surrendered on December 16, 1971. India declared a unilateral ceasefire in the western sector, marking the culmination of the war and the creation of Bangladesh.

Impact of the War

The 1971 war led to significant shifts in India’s foreign policy and regional dynamics:

Closer Ties with the Soviet Union: India’s alignment with the Soviet Union deepened, while its relations with the United States became strained.
Decline of the Pak-China-America Alliance: The triangular partnership between Pakistan, China, and the United States weakened significantly.
India’s Emergence as a Regional Power: The war bolstered India’s image as a dominant regional power and paved the way for its more active role in global politics.
Internal Strengthening vs. Pakistan’s Fragmentation: While India emerged more unified and resilient, Pakistan faced significant internal disintegration and instability.

The Kashmir Dispute

The Kashmir conflict persisted throughout this period. After UN-mediated efforts failed, Pakistan pursued alternative strategies, such as the ill-fated ‘Gibraltar Campaign’ of 1965, which was thwarted by India’s swift military response.

The 1955–1971 period was marked by extreme conflict and complexity in Indo-Pak relations. Bitterness and hostility reached unprecedented levels, and no substantial progress was made in resolving the Kashmir issue. The 1971 war fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape of South Asia, reshaping relations between the two nations and the region’s boundaries.

3. Era of Détente (1972–1979)

Significant changes unfolded in Indo-Pak relations after the 1971 war, leading both nations to seek ways to improve ties during the 1970s.

India’s Position

India emerged from the 1971 war with enhanced credibility and recognition of its strategic capabilities, solidifying its position as a regional power in South Asia. Indian diplomacy, under the leadership of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, sought to establish regional and international peace by improving relations with Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Transformation

The war brought profound consequences for Pakistan, leading to qualitative changes in its foreign policy:

With the independence of Bangladesh, Pakistan no longer needed to justify its existence with the “two-nation theory.”
Efforts were made to end military rule and transition towards democratic governance.
Steps were taken to prioritize economic development.
Measures were implemented to reduce the influence of separatist movements in Punjab and Sindh.
Pressures related to war issues, such as the release of 93,000 prisoners of war, forced Pakistan to reassess its foreign relations.

Shimla Agreement

Recognizing the need for dialogue, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto initiated talks with India. This culminated in the Shimla Agreement, signed on July 3, 1972, marking a new chapter in bilateral relations. Key features of the agreement included:

A commitment by both nations to respect each other’s territorial integrity and political sovereignty.
Resolving disputes through peaceful means and bilateral dialogue.
Establishing closer ties by enhancing postal, telecommunication, air, sea, and land links, as well as facilitating passenger travel, economic and trade relations, and scientific cooperation.
Withdrawal of forces to the international boundary within 30 days, with the “boundary” referring to the line of control at the time of the December 17, 1971, ceasefire.

Post-Agreement Developments

While the agreement provided a framework for détente, the matter of the 93,000 prisoners of war remained unresolved until Pakistan recognized Bangladesh on February 22, 1974. This recognition facilitated the return of prisoners through a trilateral meeting in Delhi on April 9, 1974, involving India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

Agreements and Cooperation

Agreements on trade, mutual exchanges, and the release of jailed citizens in both countries were signed in 1974 and 1975.
Despite tensions arising from India’s Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNE) at Pokhran on May 18, 1974, efforts toward cooperation continued.
In 1976, both nations signed trade and non-trade agreements, and ambassadors were reinstated after a five-year gap on May 14, 1976.
India’s Foreign Minister visited Pakistan on February 6, 1978, signing further agreements.
The Salal Electricity Project, signed on April 14, 1979, during a Pakistani delegation’s visit to India, was a notable milestone in collaboration.

The period from 1972 to 1979 marked a phase of détente in Indo-Pak relations. Despite lingering tensions, including those triggered by India’s nuclear test, both nations demonstrated a willingness to cooperate through diplomatic agreements and mutual engagement. This era laid the groundwork for dialogue, though challenges to lasting peace remained.

4. Era of Turmoil (1980–1991)

The period from 1980 to 1991 was marked by significant tension in Indo-Pak relations. The Soviet Union’s intervention in Afghanistan not only reignited a new Cold War but also altered the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia, intensifying the discord between India and Pakistan.

Key Reasons for Tensions

Afghanistan Crisis: India refrained from openly opposing Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, whereas Pakistan’s relations with the United States strengthened during this time.
Increased Militarization: Both nations escalated their military expenditures and weapon acquisitions.
Nuclear Development: The acquisition of nuclear capabilities by both countries heightened tensions, compounded by the race to develop missile technology.
Siachen Glacier Dispute: The conflict over the strategic Siachen Glacier emerged as a significant point of contention.
Indian Ocean Disagreement: While both nations supported the UN’s 1971 declaration for the Indian Ocean Peace Zone, Pakistan accepted U.S. military bases in the region, which India opposed.
Support for Terrorism: Pakistan’s alleged backing of insurgencies in Punjab and Kashmir fueled further hostility.
Military Exercises: The “Brasstacks” military exercise by India in 1987 and Pakistan’s “Zarb-e-Momin” created significant tensions, with some scholars labeling Brasstacks as the “fourth war.”

Despite these factors, outright war was avoided, and some efforts were made to build confidence between the two nations.

Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs)

Amidst strained relations, both countries agreed to several initiatives to reduce tensions:

Non-Attack on Nuclear Installations: In December 1988, both nations agreed not to target each other’s nuclear facilities.
Military Transparency: On April 6, 1991, both sides agreed to share prior information about military exercises.
Hotline Establishment: Hotlines were set up between military leaders to prevent misunderstandings and unintended skirmishes.
Airspace Agreements: Agreements allowed military aircraft to use special air routes in 1991, later expanded in August 1992.
Ban on Chemical Weapons: Both nations agreed not to use chemical weapons during conflicts.

Additionally, economic commissions were formed to identify commodities for import and export, aiming to foster economic cooperation.

Post-Cold War Changes

The end of the Cold War brought new dynamics, offering hope for improved relations. However, longstanding issues persisted:

Terrorism in Kashmir: Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism in Kashmir continued, despite the changed global context.
Mutual Distrust: Old policies of animosity remained, affecting even diplomatic interactions.
Babri Masjid Incident: The demolition of the Babri Masjid on December 6, 1992, in Ayodhya led to Pakistan’s criticism of India and retaliatory demolition of temples in Pakistan.
Bombay Bombings: The serial bomb blasts in Bombay on March 12, 1993, further strained relations, with India attributing responsibility to Pakistan.
Arms Race: Pakistan’s acquisition of advanced weaponry and India’s continued militarization deepened the arms race.

Nuclear Tests and Positive Developments (1998)

India’s nuclear tests at Pokhran-II on May 11 and 13, 1998, followed by Pakistan’s tests in Chagai on May 30, marked a new phase in relations. While these tests intensified nuclear proliferation concerns, they also prompted renewed dialogue:

Talks Between Leaders: Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers met during the SAARC Summit (July 1998) in Colombo, the NAM Summit (September 1998) in Durban, and the UN General Assembly in the same month.
‘2+6’ Agenda: Both nations agreed to separate discussions on eight contentious issues, focusing on six areas apart from Kashmir and peace & security. This allowed progress on less sensitive matters without being derailed by disagreement over Kashmir.
Bus Service Agreement: A landmark agreement to initiate bus services between the two countries was reached.
November 1998 Talks: Discussions on disputes like Siachen, Sir Creek, the Tulbul/Wullar Barrage, terrorism, drug smuggling, economic cooperation, and cultural exchange were conducted by high-level representatives.

The period from 1980 to 1991 was a tumultuous era in Indo-Pak relations, characterized by mutual distrust, heightened militarization, and persistent tensions over Kashmir and terrorism. However, initiatives such as CBMs and the ‘2+6’ dialogue framework signaled a cautious willingness to engage, setting the stage for further diplomatic efforts in the subsequent decades.

5. A New Beginning but a Tragic End

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s historic bus visit to Lahore on February 20, 1999, marked a significant moment in India-Pakistan relations. This initiative reflected an earnest effort to improve ties between the two nations. Several factors contributed to this shift in diplomacy:

Factors Driving the Change in Diplomacy

Clarification of Nuclear Policy: India sought to assert its nuclear non-proliferation stance more clearly, particularly as it found itself marginalized in global discussions on the subject.
Pressure to Sign the CTBT: Both nations faced growing international pressure to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Post-Nuclear Tests Measures: After the May 1998 nuclear tests, both countries recognized the need for confidence-building measures to prevent nuclear escalation.
U.S. Involvement: American Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott’s visits to India and Pakistan highlighted increasing U.S. engagement in fostering stability in the region.
Economic Challenges: Strengthening the economy in the post-Cold War era was a pressing challenge for both nations, necessitating a thaw in relations.

While these pressures were transient, the broader goal of economic and regional stability made improved relations essential.

Key Agreements During the Visit

During the two-day visit, three critical documents were signed, marking a turning point in bilateral relations:

Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
- Agreement on confidence-building measures to prevent nuclear confrontation.
- Commitment to provide prior notification before missile testing.
- Mutual pledge to impose self-restrictions on future nuclear tests.
Joint Statement
- Enhanced cooperation within the framework of SAARC.
- Collaboration in World Trade Organization (WTO) initiatives.
- Focused cooperation in information technology, especially addressing the Y2K challenge.
- Steps towards the liberation of war prisoners.
Lahore Declaration
- Emphasis on promoting peace, stability, and prosperity for the people of both nations.
- Recognition of the necessity of permanent peace and good relations for future generations.
- Acknowledgment of heightened responsibilities due to nuclear capabilities.
- Commitment to the principles of the UN Charter and peaceful coexistence.
- Reaffirmation of the Shimla Agreement as the foundation for bilateral relations.

Outcomes of the Visit

Vajpayee’s visit was a watershed moment that symbolized a new beginning between India and Pakistan. The outcomes of this visit included:

Elevated Dialogue Levels: Discussions expanded to include Prime Ministers, Foreign Ministers, senior officials, and political representatives.
Comprehensive Agenda: Issues such as security, nuclear deterrence, disarmament, WTO participation, and information technology were addressed in an integrated manner.
Economic Cooperation: The scope of trade dialogue allowed both nations to selectively advance specific areas of mutual interest.
Enhanced Mutual Trust: Dialogues fostered confidence and a positive attitude by addressing and acknowledging weaknesses.
Commitment to the Shimla Agreement: Both nations reaffirmed their ability to resolve disputes bilaterally, minimizing the scope for external interference.
Signal to Global Powers: The initiative demonstrated that both countries were committed to resolving their differences independently.

The Tragic End

Despite the optimism and goodwill generated by the Lahore visit, the Kargil War in mid-1999 tragically undermined the progress made. Pakistan’s military incursion into Indian territory in Kargil shattered the nascent trust built during Vajpayee’s visit. This conflict not only derailed the peace process but also reinforced the deep-seated mistrust between the two nations.

The Lahore visit remains a landmark moment in India-Pakistan relations, showcasing a sincere attempt to forge peace and cooperation. However, the subsequent Kargil War highlighted the fragility of these efforts, emphasizing the challenges in sustaining peace between the two countries. The tragedy of this period underscores the importance of consistent and genuine efforts in building a stable and peaceful relationship.

Kargil War: A Tragic Reversal

The optimism following the Lahore Declaration was short-lived. Before its results could materialize, Pakistan reignited hostilities by initiating the Kargil War against India. This conflict, which began in May 1999, shattered the peace process and nullified the goodwill generated by the “Lahore sentiment” and “bus diplomacy.” The war became another flashpoint in India-Pakistan relations, akin to previous conflicts like the wars of 1947 and 1971.

The Kargil War reinforced the perception that the pattern of conflict followed by fleeting peace remained the norm between the two nations, with cooperation always proving elusive. India launched Operation Vijay on July 25-26, 1999, to reclaim territories infiltrated by Pakistani forces along the Line of Control (LoC). After significant loss of life and resources, India successfully forced Pakistan to withdraw.

Casualties and Losses

According to government data:

Military casualties: 461 soldiers killed, 683 injured, and 2 reported missing.
Air Force casualties: 5 personnel killed.
Independent estimates suggest these numbers may be higher. Despite the formal ceasefire on July 26, 1999, low-intensity skirmishes continued for months.

Key Lessons from the War

The Kargil conflict exposed several weaknesses in India’s response mechanisms:

Intelligence Failures: The inability to detect Pakistani incursions in advance.
Strategic Lapses: Delayed and inadequate initial responses to the crisis.
Political Oversight: A lack of proactive leadership in addressing the escalating situation.

Impact on India-Pakistan Relations

The war profoundly affected bilateral ties, with several long-term repercussions:

Erosion of Nuclear Deterrence: The belief that nuclear capabilities would prevent conventional war was disproven.
End of the Lahore Sentiment: The goodwill generated by the Lahore Declaration was entirely lost.
Rise of Extremism: The war highlighted the growing danger of extremism in the region.
Internationalization of the Conflict: Pakistan’s coordination with Mujahideen, the Taliban, and other Islamic groups escalated the crisis beyond bilateral boundaries, drawing attention from Western and Central Asian nations.
Increased External Interference: The war opened the door for greater involvement of international powers in Indo-Pak disputes.
Collapse of Confidence-Building Measures: Years of efforts to enhance trust and cooperation were undone.

Agra Summit: A Failed Attempt at Reconciliation

In July 2001, India and Pakistan made another attempt to revive dialogue through the Agra Summit (July 14-16). However, the summit ended in failure due to fundamental disagreements and procedural missteps.

Reasons for Failure

Lack of Preparedness: Both sides failed to agree on an agenda before the talks.
Kashmir Dispute: Pakistan’s insistence on making Kashmir the central issue stalled progress.
Diplomatic Missteps:
- Musharraf violated diplomatic protocols by meeting Hurriyat leaders, a banned organization in India, for tea.
- Unauthorized press conferences and other activities during Musharraf’s visit further strained ties.
Inappropriate Statements: Miscommunication and controversial remarks by Indian officials added to the tensions.
No Formal Send-Off: Indian political leadership’s decision not to give Musharraf a formal farewell reflected the lack of mutual trust.

Despite these setbacks, the Agra Summit was viewed as a tentative step toward dialogue, though no agreements or joint declarations were signed.

Operation Parakram: Retaliatory Diplomacy

The attack on the Indian Parliament on December 13, 2001, by Pakistan-based terrorist groups Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed marked a turning point in Indo-Pak relations. The attack, described by Indian leaders as an attempt to decimate the country’s political leadership, prompted a stern response from India.

India’s Initial Response

Suspension of railway and bus services.
Withdrawal of the Indian High Commissioner from Pakistan.
Reduction in staff at the Pakistani High Commission.
Blocking of airspace for Pakistani flights.
Landmine deployments along the LoC to prepare for potential military action.

Launch of Operation Parakram

In December 2001, India mobilized its military forces along the border under Operation Parakram. While initially designed to launch strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan, the operation ultimately remained a show of strength and diplomatic maneuvering.

Challenges and Outcomes

Planned attacks were postponed twice (January 5-6 and June 15, 2002), reflecting India’s cautious approach.
Despite pressure from the international community and the Indian military buildup, Pakistan remained defiant, even conducting missile tests in May 2002.
Ultimately, Operation Parakram failed to yield tangible results, highlighting the limits of India’s retaliatory diplomacy.

The Kargil War, the failed Agra Summit, and Operation Parakram illustrate the complexities and challenges of India-Pakistan relations. While moments of hope and dialogue emerge periodically, they are often undermined by mistrust, aggression, and unresolved disputes. Sustaining peace between the two nations requires consistent efforts, mutual respect, and a commitment to addressing root causes of conflict.

6. New Initiative but Status Quo

On April 18, 2003, during his visit to Srinagar, Prime Minister Vajpayee extended a symbolic “Hand of Friendship” to Pakistan, marking a new effort to improve bilateral relations. This initiative, coupled with parliamentary delegations engaging in track-II diplomacy, aimed to foster stronger ties between the people of both nations. Several confidence-building measures (CBMs) were announced and implemented, including:

High Commissioners: Both countries appointed high commissioners to each other’s capitals.
Transport Links: Resumption of the Lahore bus service from July 1, 2003, and agreements to reopen rail lines and exempt international air routes from restrictions.
Humanitarian Gestures: Release of Indian fishermen held in Pakistani jails, as well as 20 Sikh youths and 14 crew members of a cargo ship.
Cultural Exchanges: Initiatives to promote sports and other forms of people-to-people interaction.
Restoration of Diplomacy: Agreement to restore the pre-December 2001 staffing levels in High Commissions.

Positive Developments

Both nations also agreed on measures to enhance strategic and non-strategic confidence, covering areas such as:

Ceasefire and military communication.
Management of nuclear missiles.
Economic cooperation.
People-to-people contact and disaster management.
Counterterrorism efforts.

However, progress was repeatedly disrupted by acts of terrorism and mutual mistrust.

The 26/11 Mumbai Attacks: A Major Setback

The terrorist attack in Mumbai on November 26, 2008, derailed the fragile peace process. The incident severely impacted India-Pakistan relations due to Pakistan’s failure to:

Curb terrorist activities originating from its soil.
Hand over or prosecute the culprits involved in the attacks.

This event eroded mutual trust, bringing diplomatic efforts to a standstill.

Attempts to Revive Dialogue

Efforts to rebuild relations resumed in subsequent years, albeit with limited success:

Visa Agreement (September 2012)

A bilateral visa agreement was signed to liberalize visa regimes and promote ease of travel.

Resumed Dialogue Rounds

2012-2014: Two rounds of resumed dialogue were completed.
March 2014: Discussions on Cross-LoC trade and travel CBMs were held in New Delhi.

Economic and Trade Initiatives

In 2012, India reduced its SAFTA Sensitive List for non-Least Developed Countries by 30%, lowering tariffs on 264 items to 5% over three years. This provided a boost to Pakistan’s exports, particularly in key sectors like agriculture and textiles.
2014 Trade Talks: Commerce ministers reaffirmed their commitment to normalizing trade relations, including Non-Discriminatory Market Access (NDMA) on a reciprocal basis. Discussions also covered energy cooperation in power, gas, and petroleum sectors.

Joint Business Council

Meetings in New Delhi (October 2013) and Lahore (February 2014) fostered cooperation in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and healthcare.

Roadblocks to Progress

Political Disruptions

May 2014: Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attended Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony, signaling a thaw in relations. However, tensions rose again after the Pakistani High Commissioner’s meeting with Hurriyat leaders.
August 2015: Scheduled talks between National Security Advisors in New Delhi were canceled due to similar provocations, perpetuating the deadlock.

Despite promising initiatives and significant steps toward confidence-building, the India-Pakistan relationship remains mired in mistrust and periodic setbacks. While efforts like visa liberalization, trade normalization, and cultural exchanges demonstrate potential, incidents of terrorism and political missteps continue to undermine progress. Sustained commitment and mutual goodwill are essential to transform these initiatives into lasting peace and cooperation.

7. India-Pakistan Relations During the Modi Era

The partition of British India on August 14 and 15, 1947, created the nations of Pakistan and India under the Lord Mountbatten Plan. However, the hasty division resulted in severe challenges and lingering hostilities, casting a long shadow over relations between the two neighbors. India’s foreign policy has consistently evolved to address these challenges, balancing peace initiatives with the need for security, particularly in response to wars, cross-border terrorism, and regional dynamics influenced by China and global powers like the United States and Russia.

In 2014, a significant shift occurred when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) formed India’s first non-Congress government with a full majority, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This article examines the trajectory of India-Pakistan relations under Modi’s leadership.

Modi’s Early Peace Overtures

From the outset, Modi signaled a willingness to engage with Pakistan. He invited South Asian leaders, including then-Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to his swearing-in ceremony in May 2014. In a gesture of goodwill, Modi made a surprise visit to Lahore in December 2015 to attend Sharif’s birthday celebrations, underlining India’s commitment to fostering peaceful neighborly relations.

Modi’s approach was rooted in the “Neighborhood First” policy, emphasizing bilateral dialogue and peaceful resolution of issues. However, it was also made clear that India would not compromise on national security and was prepared to take decisive action to safeguard its territorial integrity.

Key Developments and Challenges

Early Dialogue Efforts (2014-2016)
- High-level meetings, such as the Modi-Sharif dialogue in Ufa in 2015 and the visit of Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj to Islamabad, sought to resume comprehensive bilateral talks.
- Despite these initiatives, major terrorist attacks, including those on the Pathankot Airbase (January 2016) and the Uri Army Camp (August 2016), derailed progress.
Surgical Strikes (2016)
- In response to the Uri attack, India conducted surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, targeting terrorist launch pads. This marked a significant shift in India’s approach, moving from a primarily diplomatic stance to proactive military responses.
Kartarpur Corridor (2019)
- Amid tensions, both nations agreed to open the Kartarpur Corridor, facilitating visa-free access for Indian pilgrims to the Gurdwara Darbar Sahib in Pakistan. The corridor, inaugurated by Modi in November 2019, highlighted India’s efforts to separate religious and cultural ties from political discord.
Pulwama Attack and Balakot Airstrike (2019)
- The Pulwama terrorist attack, orchestrated by Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed, killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel.
- India responded with an airstrike on a terrorist training camp in Balakot, further escalating tensions.
Abrogation of Article 370 (2019)
- India’s revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status prompted Pakistan to downgrade diplomatic ties, halt trade, and suspend transport links.
Ceasefire Agreement (2021)
- Despite ongoing skirmishes, India and Pakistan reaffirmed their commitment to a ceasefire along the Line of Control in February 2021, signaling a rare moment of de-escalation.

Broader Implications of Modi’s Approach

Modi’s tenure has seen India adopt a more assertive stance in dealing with Pakistan. Key elements include:

Global Diplomacy: Modi’s international engagements bolstered India’s global standing, isolating Pakistan diplomatically on issues like terrorism.
Focus on Security: Emphasis on self-reliance and robust defense capabilities has strengthened India’s ability to counter cross-border threats.
Strategic Patience: By refraining from reacting to every provocation, India has shifted the narrative, compelling Pakistan to address India’s terms for meaningful dialogue.

Under Modi, India-Pakistan relations have been marked by a mix of peace initiatives and assertive measures. While Modi extended early olive branches, repeated acts of terrorism originating from Pakistan undermined trust. India’s firm responses, such as surgical strikes and the Balakot airstrike, demonstrated a willingness to break from past practices. At the same time, efforts like the Kartarpur Corridor exemplify India’s commitment to fostering cultural and people-to-people ties.

Moving forward, the onus remains on Pakistan to create a conducive environment for dialogue by curbing terrorism and refraining from provocative actions. Modi’s policies underscore India’s dual approach: striving for peace while remaining uncompromising on national security.

India-Pakistan Nuclear Race

India has a long history of nuclear weapons development. The origins of India’s nuclear program date back to 1944, when the country began its nuclear efforts shortly after gaining independence. From the 1940s to the 1960s, India’s nuclear program gradually advanced, shifting towards militarization while expanding its nuclear infrastructure across the country. The decision to pursue nuclear weapons came in the wake of China’s invasion and territorial annexation of northern India. By 1967, India’s nuclear ambitions were increasingly focused on developing nuclear weapons, with Prime Minister Indira Gandhi closely overseeing the progress.

In 1971, after achieving military and political success over Pakistan during the Indo-Pakistani War, India began preparations for a nuclear test. This culminated in India’s first successful nuclear explosion at the Pokhran Test Range in 1974, codenamed “Smiling Buddha.” Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, India also developed space and nuclear-capable missiles, intensifying the regional arms race, particularly with Pakistan. Pakistan responded by advancing its own missile and space programs, conducting uncrewed flight tests of its space vehicles by the mid-1990s.

In response to its defeat in the 1971 war, Pakistan initiated its nuclear weapons program in 1972, accelerating efforts after India’s first nuclear test in 1974. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development was directly motivated by India’s progress. By 1983, Pakistan had achieved a significant milestone with covert non-fission nuclear tests, codenamed “Kirana-I.” These cold tests were never officially acknowledged by the Pakistani government. Over the following years, Pakistan expanded its nuclear infrastructure to support its electricity sector and bolster its economy.

In 1988, India and Pakistan reached a mutual understanding, pledging not to attack each other’s nuclear facilities. This period also saw agreements on cultural exchanges and civil aviation. Then, in 1998, India conducted its second round of nuclear tests, known as Pokhran-II, which prompted Pakistan to follow suit and carry out its own nuclear tests.

India-Pakistan Socio-Cultural Relations

India and Pakistan share significant cultural, linguistic, and historical ties due to their common Indo-Aryan heritage, which spans much of the northern subcontinent. This shared heritage has led to similarities in culture, cuisine, and language, especially between Northern India and Eastern Pakistan. Pakistani singers, musicians, comedians, and entertainers have gained widespread popularity in India, with many achieving fame in Bollywood. Conversely, Indian music and films are also immensely popular in Pakistan. The cultural similarities between the two countries are particularly strong in Pakistan’s northern region, which mirrors North India.

The Punjab region was divided during the 1947 partition, creating Punjab in both India and Pakistan. The Punjabi people are the largest ethnic group in Pakistan and also an important community in northern India. The founder of Sikhism was born in what is now Pakistan’s Punjab province, in Nankana Sahib, which draws millions of Indian Sikh pilgrims each year. The Sindhi people, native to Pakistan’s Sindh province, have a large diaspora in India, particularly after many Hindu Sindhis migrated in 1947. Similarly, the millions of Muslims who moved from India to Pakistan during partition, known as the Muhajirs, predominantly settled in Karachi but still maintain familial connections with India.

India and Pakistan have also fostered diplomatic and cultural dialogue through platforms like Aman ki Asha, a campaign launched by The Times of India and the Jang Group, promoting peace and cooperation.

Geographic and Linguistic Ties

The India-Pakistan border divides India’s states of Punjab, Rajasthan, and Gujarat from Pakistan’s provinces of Punjab and Sindh. The Wagah border, located along the Grand Trunk Road, serves as the only official road crossing between the two countries. Each evening, a flag-lowering ceremony is held, with both sides performing a military display and exchanging handshakes.

Both India and Pakistan share Hindustani as a common lingua franca, with the standardized forms being Hindi in India and Urdu in Pakistan. These languages are mutually intelligible and widely spoken across the region, including in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Hindustani also forms the foundation for Bollywood, which enjoys vast popularity across the subcontinent.

Additionally, languages like Punjabi, Kashmiri, and Sindhi are spoken on both sides of the border. Punjabi is written in Gurmukhi in Indian Punjab and Shahmukhi in Pakistani Punjab, while Kashmiri and Sindhi share roots in the Indo-Aryan language family, further solidifying cultural and linguistic connections.

Matrimonial Ties

Marriage between Indians and Pakistanis, particularly within the diaspora, is not uncommon. Many Indian and Pakistani communities in countries like the United States frequently intermarry due to their cultural similarities. A notable example is the 2010 marriage of Pakistani cricketer Shoaib Malik and Indian tennis star Sania Mirza, which garnered significant media attention and captivated both nations.

Sporting Relations

Cricket and hockey matches between India and Pakistan have often carried political significance. Notably, during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistani General Zia-ul-Haq sought to engage in “cricket diplomacy” with India to prevent Indian support for the Soviets. More than a decade later, Pervez Musharraf attempted similar diplomacy, but with little success.

Since 2012, bilateral cricket series between the two nations have ceased, and matches are now only played during international tournaments like the Cricket World Cup and Asia Cup. India’s Sports Minister Vijay Goel in 2017 opposed any further bilateral cricket series due to Pakistan’s alleged involvement in sponsoring terrorism, emphasizing that sports and terrorism cannot coexist. The Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) also refuses to allow Pakistani players in the Indian Premier League.

In tennis, the partnership between Indian Rohan Bopanna and Pakistani Aisam-ul-Haq Qureshi, dubbed the “Indo-Pak Express,” has been a notable example of sporting collaboration.

Diasporic Relations

The Indian and Pakistani diasporas have established strong connections in countries like the United Kingdom and the United States, where they often coexist in ethnic enclaves. In the UK, cities like Birmingham, Blackburn, and Manchester are home to both Indian and Pakistani communities, living peacefully alongside each other. Both groups are categorized as British Asians, and the UK is also home to the Pakistan-India Friendship Forum.

In the United States, the South Asian American community comprises both Indian and Pakistani Americans, who share cultural traits. Intermarriage between Indians and Pakistanis is also common in these regions.

British Pakistani MEP Sajjad Karim has played a key role in promoting free trade between Europe and India and has also been an advocate for peace despite the tumultuous history between the nations. He narrowly escaped the 2008 Mumbai attacks and has publicly expressed opposition to the death penalty, advocating for life imprisonment for the convicted attacker, Ajmal Kasab.

Conclusion

Despite recent positive developments, cross-border terrorism remains a significant issue between India and Pakistan, particularly with the ongoing violence in Kashmir. It is crucial to address the root causes of terrorism. However, Pakistan continues to show a disconnect between its rhetoric and actions, particularly with its stance on Kashmir, which it still considers its “central” issue. The future of relations between the two countries will depend on several factors:

The establishment of democracy and internal stability in Pakistan, which could foster better relations.
While both countries reject third-party mediation, the influence of the United States in the region continues to be a significant factor.
Economic factors may play a crucial role in shaping future relations.
Agreement between India and Pakistan on comprehensive efforts to resolve Kashmir and other disputes.
A renewed recognition of the Shimla and Lahore agreements, and the implementation of actions based on them.

Although current relations are marked by complex differences, the influence of regional and international politics is substantial. The solution is not simple. While talks may lead to some progress, the extent of improvement in relations remains uncertain, and only time will tell how things evolve.

References

Appadorai, A., & Rajan, M. S. (1988). India’s Foreign Policy and Relations. New Delhi: South Asian Publishers Pvt. Ltd.
Bandyopadhyaya, J. (2006). The Making of India’s Foreign Policy. New Delhi: Allied Publishers Pvt. Ltd.
Dutt, V. P. (2007). India’s Foreign Policy Since Independence. New Delhi: National Book Trust.
Ganguly, S., & Mukherji, R. (2011). India Since 1980. New Delhi: Cambridge University Press.
Tellis, A., & Mirski, S. (Eds.). (2013). Crux of Asia: China, India and the Emerging Global Order. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Pant, H. V. (2018). “Out With Non-Alignment, In With a ‘Modi Doctrine'”. The Diplomat.
Jaffrelot, C. (2019). “A Modi Doctrine?”. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Mohan, C. Raja. (2014). “Modi and the Middle East: Towards a Link West Policy”. The Indian Express.

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