The recent release of Jashimuddin Rahmani, an Islamist extremist leader from Bangladesh, by the country’s interim ruler Mohammad Yunus, has not only set off alarm bells across the region but also has profound geopolitical and national security implications for India. Rahmani, the leader of the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), an al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group, had been incarcerated since 2013 for his role in the murders of secular bloggers in Bangladesh. His release, after the toppling of Sheikh Hasina’s government, signals a disturbing shift in the balance of power in Bangladesh and raises significant concerns for India’s internal security.
Rahmani’s recent statements, as reported, calling for the “liberation” of West Bengal from Indian rule and advocating for its independence, have thrust him into the center of regional politics. His inflammatory rhetoric, which goes beyond mere posturing, serves as a rallying cry for radical Islamists who seek to destabilize the region. His comments also reflect the growing influence of Islamist ideologies in the political sphere of Bangladesh, which has historically oscillated between secularism and religious extremism.
A Radical Shift in Bangladesh’s Political Landscape
The ousting of Sheikh Hasina’s government, which had been in power for more than a decade, has triggered a seismic political shift in Bangladesh. Under Hasina, Bangladesh was governed by the Awami League, a party that had largely embraced secularism, sought good relations with India, and taken a strong stand against Islamist groups. During her tenure, Hasina cracked down on extremist elements and aimed to curb the rise of radical ideologies within the country. This, however, earned her the ire of Islamist groups, Pakistan, and their sympathizers.
In contrast, the current interim government, led by Mohammad Yunus and supported by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, appears to be more sympathetic to Islamist causes. The release of Rahmani, a convicted terrorist, signals a potential softening of the government’s stance towards extremist elements. Moreover, this change in leadership has been accompanied by a rise in violence against religious minorities, particularly Hindus, further exacerbating fears of instability and sectarian violence in Bangladesh.
Yunus’s regime, propped up by widespread protests and military support, could usher in a new era where Bangladesh becomes a breeding ground for anti-India sentiment and a staging ground for Islamist extremism. This could also mean that groups like the ABT, which were suppressed under Hasina, might regain influence and carry out their transnational agenda of jihad. Rahmani’s calls to “free Bengal” and his threats of Islamist expansion beyond Bangladesh underscore the potential dangers for India, especially in the volatile border regions.
The West Bengal Factor: Threats to India’s Unity
Rahmani’s direct call for West Bengal to “declare independence” and his appeals to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee to “break up India” are alarming. West Bengal, as a historically significant state with deep cultural, economic, and strategic ties to the rest of India, plays a pivotal role in the country’s stability. It shares a long, porous border with Bangladesh, making it vulnerable to cross-border infiltration, smuggling, and the spread of extremist ideologies.
Rahmani’s suggestion that Mamata Banerjee spearhead a movement for Bengal’s independence is not only incendiary but also preys on existing regional tensions. West Bengal has its own share of socio-political complexities, with a significant Muslim population, a rich history of political activism, and a nuanced relationship with the central government in New Delhi. Rahmani’s rhetoric is clearly an attempt to exploit these fault lines and sow discord within India.
However, it would be a mistake to view these statements in isolation or as mere political theater. Rahmani’s release could embolden extremist elements both within Bangladesh and in India’s border regions. His call to “hoist Islamist flags in Delhi” and his warnings of violence against India should be taken seriously. Such rhetoric can inspire lone wolf attacks or fuel the radicalization of disillusioned individuals in both countries.
The Siliguri Corridor: A Strategic Choke Point
One of the most concerning elements of Rahmani’s threats is his reference to the Siliguri Corridor, a narrow strip of land often referred to as the ‘Chicken’s Neck,’ which connects mainland India to its northeastern states. This corridor is of immense strategic importance, and any disruption in this area could effectively cut off the northeastern states from the rest of the country. By suggesting that China could be involved in blocking the corridor, Rahmani introduces a chilling new dimension to his threats.
The northeastern states, often referred to as the ‘Seven Sisters,’ have long been a region of geopolitical sensitivity for India. The region shares borders with China, Myanmar, Bhutan, and Bangladesh, making it a hotbed for both domestic insurgencies and external influences. While Rahmani’s mention of China may be rhetorical, it reflects a broader strategy to internationalize the conflict and draw external actors into what could become a regional quagmire.
China’s involvement in the region has historically been a source of concern for India. Beijing’s strategic ambitions in South Asia, coupled with its close ties to Pakistan, make it a potential player in any regional destabilization efforts. While China is unlikely to overtly back an Islamist agenda, any disruption in the Siliguri Corridor could benefit Chinese interests by weakening India’s control over its northeastern territories.
Kashmir: A Perpetual Flashpoint
Rahmani’s assertion that Kashmir should “get ready for freedom” and his promise of support from Pakistan and Afghanistan underscores the enduring volatility of the Kashmir issue. While his statements are not new in the context of Islamist rhetoric, they reinforce the dangerous nexus between regional Islamist movements and Pakistan’s longstanding desire to destabilize India.
Kashmir has been the epicenter of a long-standing territorial dispute between India and Pakistan, with both countries claiming the region in its entirety. Over the years, Pakistan has supported various militant groups to wage a proxy war against India in Kashmir. Rahmani’s threats to work for Kashmir’s “freedom,” in collaboration with Pakistan and Afghanistan, is consistent with Pakistan’s strategy of using jihadist groups as proxies in its geopolitical contest with India.
The release of a convicted terrorist like Rahmani from Bangladesh, a country that shares cultural and historical ties with West Bengal and the northeastern states, raises the specter of a transnational jihadist movement that could further inflame the situation in Kashmir. India must be vigilant to ensure that the radicalization and recruitment of disillusioned youth, which has been a hallmark of jihadist groups in the region, does not escalate further.
Bangladesh as a New Hub of Islamist Extremism?
The political transformation in Bangladesh, marked by the rise of the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, has raised concerns that the country may become a new hub for Islamist extremism. Under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh had made significant strides in curbing the influence of extremist groups and maintaining a degree of stability. However, with her government now out of power, the release of extremists like Rahmani points to the potential resurgence of radical elements.
If Bangladesh becomes a haven for Islamist groups, it could have severe consequences for the region. India, with its shared border and historical connections to Bangladesh, could see an influx of extremist ideology that could destabilize its border regions, particularly in West Bengal and the northeastern states. Moreover, the persecution of religious minorities, which has intensified in the wake of the recent political changes in Bangladesh, could lead to a surge in refugees and exacerbate communal tensions in India.
India must closely monitor the developments in Bangladesh and work with international partners to ensure that the country does not become a safe haven for Pakistan-sponsored terrorist activities. The rise of Islamist forces in Bangladesh, combined with the potential involvement of external actors like China and Pakistan, could create a perfect storm of instability in South Asia.
A Complex and Dangerous Reality
The release of Jashimuddin Rahmani and his subsequent threats against India highlight the precarious situation in the region. His inflammatory rhetoric, aimed at destabilizing West Bengal and the broader Indian subcontinent, must be taken seriously. The political changes in Bangladesh, coupled with the rise of Islamist forces, have created a volatile environment that could spill over into India.
For India, the key challenge lies in addressing these threats without exacerbating tensions in the region. This requires a multi-pronged approach that includes strengthening border security, addressing the grievances of marginalized communities, and fostering regional cooperation to counter the rise of extremist ideologies. The stakes are high, and India must remain vigilant to ensure that it is not drawn into a protracted conflict with its neighbors, especially as the threat of Islamist extremism looms large over the region.
